Signing Off

I hate to abandon this effort just when things are getting the most interesting, but recent changes in my day job and some upcoming projects will prevent me from giving this blog the attention it requires, so I have decided to suspend further posting on The Next Prez. I have enjoyed writing here for the past eighteen-plus months, and greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by all of you in helping to make this an interesting site, particularly the presidential candidates who have participated. I will leave the site online as long as Blogger/Google permits it, and invite my fellow 2008 bloggers to quote any of the material here as you wish.

I believe that everyone who participated here wants what is best for America, despite our many differing opinions on what that is and how to achieve it, and I am heartened by the civility and mutual respect that have characterized the debate here.

With highest regards,

Doug

Adams, Smith, and Obama Win January Polls

Independent presidential candidate Steve Adams won the January independent straw poll here on The Next Prez, notching his seventh consecutive victory and his second-highest monthly vote total, 271-222 over Bob Hargis. Republican Richard Smith of Texas was a repeat winner in the Republican straw poll, defeating Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel 232-201. Senator Barack Obama topped the Democratic straw poll for the first time, edging fellow senator John Kerry 209-201 after Kerry's departure from the race.

The Libertarian straw poll was tightly contested as usual, with Steve Kubby winning for the fourth straight month, 191-184 over Christine Smith. The Constitution Party monthly poll was even closer, as Jim Gilchrist earned his ninth victory, edging December's winner Michael Peroutka 111-108. Matt Gonzalez of the Green Party matched Gilchrist's accomplishment, winning for the ninth time and defeating December's Green winner Rich Whitney 77-75.

Full results for the January polls are linked in the right margin.

Candidates Corner -- The National Debt

Candidates' Corner is an opportunity for all presidential candidates from all parties to comment on some of the top issues facing the next president of the United States. Candidates are invited to respond to the question of the week in the comments of this post, identifying themselves and their party in the first line of their responses.

This week's question addresses a problem that no president since Andrew Jackson has dealt with completely -- the national debt. It took almost 200 years, from 1789 to 1982, for the US government to accumulate a debt of one trillion dollars. When the winner of the 2008 US presidential election takes office, during Fiscal Year 2009, that debt will exceed ten trillion dollars, according to the Office of Management and Budget. FY2006 will contribute around 400 billion dollars to that total, with the federal government spending 2.7 trillion dollars and taking 2.3 trillion dollars from American taxpayers.

This week's question:

If you are elected the next president, what will you do to address the ten-trillion-dollar national debt, given that less than one trillion dollars of the current budget is labeled discretionary spending, Americans are historically adverse to tax increases, and looming demographic trends will turn Social Security from a net government revenue stream to a net cost?

Obama, McCain Lead January Blog Posts

Barack Obama was the hottest presidential candidates on blogs in the past month, edging Hillary Clinton in a Google Blog Search conducted January 30th. John McCain was the top Republican candidate, by a wide margin over Mitt Romney. The survey was conducted by searching for the candidates' name in quotes (e.g. "Mitt Romney"), then narrowing results to the past month. January included numerous candidate announcements, making this comparison an interesting indicator for which candidates are generating the most Internet buzz. Full results:

Democrats	Posts
Barack Obama	52,058
Hillary Clinton	45,562
John Edwards	16,480
Bill Richardson	6,514
Joe Biden	4,897
Dennis Kucinich	4,819
Tom Vilsack	4,277
Chris Dodd	2,869
Al Sharpton	2,597
Wesley Clark	1,673
Mike Gravel	1,123

Republicans	Posts
John McCain	18,724
Mitt Romney	10,660
Rudy Giuliani	6,197
Chuck Hagel	5,988
Sam Brownback	5,661
Newt Gingrich	4,695
Mike Huckabee	3,516
Ron Paul	2,891
Tom Tancredo	2,837
Duncan Hunter	2,399
George Pataki	1,207
Tommy Thompson	495
Jim Gilmore	479
John Cox	292

Third Party	Posts
Jim Gilchrist	147
Christine Smith	136
Steve Adams	119
Doug Stanhope	96
George Phillies	73
Steve Kubby	64
Matt Gonzalez	63
Rick Jore	46
Winona LaDuke	42
Gene Chapman	36
David Koch	28
Kent McManigal	21
Rich Whitney	21
Robert Milnes	17
Kat Swift	15
Michael Peroutka	14
Nan Garrett	11
Daniel Imperato	9
Joe Schriner	8
Bob Hargis	5

Results for some candidates were inflated somewhat by blog entries about other individuals with the same name.

Six Questions with Bob Hargis

Bob Hargis of Oklahoma is one of the first independent presidential candidates to openly pursue the nomination of Unity08, putting up an online petition even before the group's rules for inclusion in the selection process have been finalized. His website, Hargis.info, has received over 20,000 visits since November of 2006 and contains a link to the petition, his stands on the issues, and background information. This interview is the ninth in a series of presidential interviews here on The Next Prez.


The Next Prez: What do you see as the most important issues in the 2008 presidential election, and where do you stand on those issues?

Bob Hargis: The war on terror and a solid exit strategy in Iraq. While social issues such as gay marriage and stem cell research will be prevalent, clearly the war in Iraq will be the top issue for at least the next year.

I stand firm that we need a solid inexcusable exit strategy that will move cautiously enough to protect our soldiers yet be expedited to protect out greater national interest. Clearly, a vast majority of people in the United States want to seek an end to this civil war and policing project that is currently in operation. I am not confident that a new surge of soldiers will serve any purpose and I fully support a cautious, well planed withdrawal.

As for the continued war on terror, we need to re-group, and then focus on strategies to eliminate threats to our country. Homeland security, national defense capabilities, intelligence and border control will be top priorities in the upcoming years.


The Next Prez: As an independent candidate, what steps are you taking to gain attention for your campaign, and how well are they working so far?

Bob Hargis: Initially we focused on web based promotion, and while we will continue that effort, we are currently moving towards other forms of media, to include interviews in periodicals, TV and newspaper. So far we have been unbelievably successful in getting our message spread online. The speed and the power of the internet has amazed us as the word of our mission has been captured in a wave of electronic fury and spread around the nation.


The Next Prez: You state on your website that Americans deserve to be informed about how the government is spending our tax dollars, but how can you inspire those who may be apathetic to want to know more?

Bob Hargis: Like any tax based agency, all information should be made public. A local tax funded agency could never get away with hiding its financial information. While this does not mean that people will care or will pay close attention, it gives everyone the opportunity to see what is really happening with their money.

The same would be true if the Federal government were held to publicly reported audits. Some would care and some would not. However, an interesting thing happens when you know that your business and finance are being audited and published. Amazingly, this brings accountability, which brings increased caution in spending. The federal government should be no less accountable than any other agency, and the accountability factor will bring a new level of financial integrity, even if it is only a small portion of our public that takes interest.


The Next Prez: What characteristics should American voters be looking for in a presidential candidate that the best known candidates might lack?

Bob Hargis: Sincere interest, concern and passion for the working class American citizens. This is something that has been lost as the middle class, where most Americans live, has been consumed by a large, money and power driven government that has not protected their best interest.


The Next Prez: Why have you decided to pursue the Unity08 nomination, and what impact do you see that group having on the 2008 election?

Bob Hargis: If this grassroots movement holds true to its mission, they will echo this strong message to Washington: Americans are tired of money controlled politics, tired of being manipulated and ready to be represented. Americans have the power and ability to choose who will represent them, and the powers of political parties will pale in comparison to the strong arm of the independent patriots who come together to make change.

Frankly as an Independent candidate I am seeking the support that this type of organization offers, and I am excited to be involved in the first ever online primary election.


The Next Prez: Why should Americans support your candidacy, and vote for you in 2008?

Bob Hargis: First, I am asking that Americans support me by giving me a fair chance to have ballot access. I have said many times, help me to secure my right to be on the ballot, then it will be up to me to convince you to vote for me. So in essence, the first goal in my campaign is ballot access.

Second, I am a moderate conservative who is deeply rooted in faith. I believe in this country, have faith for its success and hope for its future.

Third, I am not bound up by power, parties, or finance and I have an unsolicited perspective on American politics. I am a facilitator, and always seek to make peace and find common ground. I can do this in the White House. We need to bridge a gap between the left and the right so that our government can return to its original purpose to serve and protect its people.

Fourth, I am a servant. It’s as simple as that. I believe in serving my fellow Americans. I have no alternative motives, nothing to gain and most importantly I know what it’s like in middle class working America. I am not living in a false reality of money and power. I am a true patriot ready to serve with heart and passion.

2008 Presidential Candidates

An updated look at the candidates and potential candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Please comment with any additions, deletions, or corrections.

FEC = formed or announced exploratory or campaign committee with the FEC, or filed statement of candidacy


DEMOCRATS

Joseph Biden (DE) -- running
Hillary Clinton (NY) -- running (FEC)
Christopher Dodd (CT) -- running (FEC)
John Edwards (NC) -- running (FEC)
Mike Gravel (VA) -- running (FEC)
Dennis Kucinich (OH) -- running (FEC)
Barack Obama (IL) -- running (FEC)
Bill Richardson (NM) -- running (FEC)
Tom Vilsack (IA) -- running (FEC)

Wesley Clark -- possible
Al Sharpton -- possible

Laura Aaron (TN) -- running (FEC)
Carlos Alvarez (NC) -- running (FEC)
Warren Ashe (VA) -- running (FEC)
George Ballard (PA) -- running (FEC)
Emperor Caesar (FL) -- running (FEC)
Randy Crow (NC) -- running (FEC)
Richard Flynn (AZ) -- running (FEC)
Michael Forrester (CO) -- running (FEC)
Edward Gittelson (NY) -- running (FEC)
Amanda Hardy (DC) -- running (FEC)
Michael Hayes (MD) -- running (FEC)
Karen Keville -- running
Karl Krueger (SD) -- running (FEC)
John Mason (NC) -- running (FEC)
Sherry Meadows (TX) -- running (FEC)
Lee Mercer (TX) -- running (FEC)
Sal Mohamed (IA) -- running (FEC)
Ole Savior (MN) -- running (FEC)
Charles Vick (TN) -- running (FEC)
Tony Vintinner (TX) -- running (FEC)
Rubin Young (FL) -- running (FEC)

Evan Bayh -- disclaimed interest
Al Gore -- not running; hasn't ruled it out completely
Tom Daschle -- disclaimed interest
Russ Feingold -- disclaimed interest
John Kerry -- disclaimed interest
Lyndon LaRouche -- disclaimed interest
Mark Warner -- disclaimed interest


REPUBLICANS

Sam Brownback (KS) -- running (FEC)
John Cox (IL) -- running (FEC)
Jim Gilmore (VA) -- running (FEC)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) -- running (FEC)
Mike Huckabee (AR) -- running (FEC)
Duncan Hunter (CA) -- running (FEC)
John McCain (AZ) -- running (FEC)
Ron Paul (TX) -- running (FEC)
Mitt Romney (MA) -- running (FEC)
Tom Tancredo (CO) -- running (FEC)
Tommy Thompson (WI) -- running (FEC)

Newt Gingrich -- possible
Chuck Hagel -- possible
George Pataki -- possible

Larry Aden -- running
Daniel Barnett (CO) -- running (FEC)
Dewey Broughman (VA) -- running (FEC)
Edward Buck (UT) -- running (FEC)
Allen Bunch (GA) -- running (FEC)
Hugh Cort -- running
Lowell Fellure (WV) -- running (FEC)
Bob Forthan (OR) -- running (FEC)
Anthony Gallagher (NC) -- running (FEC)
Curtis Hayward (TX) -- running (FEC)
Millie Howard (OH) -- running (FEC)
Michael Jackson (NJ) -- running (FEC)
Roger Jewell (AZ) -- running (FEC)
Timothy Kalemkarian (CA) -- running (FEC)
Mark Klein -- running
Yehanna Malone (DC) -- running (FEC)
Robert Moreau (CA) -- running (FEC)
Joseph Morrow -- running
William Raven (OR) -- running (FEC)
Marshall Sanders (CA) -- running (FEC)
Freddy Sitnick (MD) -- running (FEC)
Michael Smith (OR) -- running (FEC)
Richard Smith (TX) -- running (FEC)
Clyde Staggs (AZ) -- running (FEC)
Johns Stevenson (CA) -- running (FEC)

Bill Frist -- disclaimed interest
Frank Keating -- disclaimed interest
Condoleezza Rice -- disclaimed interest


LIBERTARIANS

Jim Burns -- running
Gene Chapman -- running
David Hollist -- running
Steve Kubby (CA) -- running (FEC)
Kip Lee (CA) -- running (FEC)
Alden Link -- running
Kent McManigal -- running
Robert Milnes -- running
George Phillies (MA) -- running (FEC)
Christine Smith (CO) -- running (FEC)
Doug Stanhope -- running

Barry Hess -- probable
Wayne Root -- probable

Lance Brown -- disclaimed interest
Karen Kwiatkowski -- seeking VP nomination


GREEN PARTY

Nan Garrett -- running
Robert Milnes -- running
Kat Swift -- running

Medea Benjamin -- probable
Elaine Brown -- probable
Matt Gonzalez -- probable
Winona LaDuke -- probable
Pat LaMarche -- probable
Rebecca Rotzler -- probable
Rich Whitney -- probable

Peter Camejo -- disclaimed interest
David Cobb -- disclaimed interest


CONSTITUTION PARTY

Gene Chapman -- running
Jim Gilchrist -- probable
Jim Headings -- probable
Michael Peroutka -- probable

Chuck Baldwin -- possible
Joe Bannister -- possible
Jim Clymer -- possible
Jerome Corsi -- possible
Bob Dornan -- possible
Rick Jore -- possible
Alan Keyes -- possible
Roy Moore -- possible


INDEPENDENTS and OTHER

Steve Adams (KY) -- running
Gene Amondson -- running
William Anderson (WV) -- running (FEC)
Terry Barkdull (NV) -- running (FEC), The American Party
John Blyth (IL) -- running (FEC)
John Bowles -- running
Clark Braxton -- running
Jerry Carroll (CA) -- running (FEC)
Joseph Charles (TX) -- running (FEC)
Don Cordell -- running
Davy Crockett -- running
Orion Daley -- running
Daniel Defazio (CT) -- running (FEC)
Michael Elder -- running
Max Englerius (WA) -- running (FEC)
Cris Ericson -- running
Adam Farley -- running
Vinnie Ferrari -- running
Jon Greenspon -- running
Lisa Groff -- running
Dennis Hackbarth -- running
Al Hamburg (WY) -- running (FEC)
Alex Hammer -- running
Bob Hargis -- running
Cassandra Hefton -- running
Samuel Hoff (DE) -- running (FEC)
Clifton Hudson -- running
Joseph Hunt (DC) -- running (FEC)
Daniel Imperato (FL) -- running (FEC)
Stephen James -- running
Paul Jensen -- running
Keith Judd (PA) -- running (FEC)
David Koch (UT) -- running (FEC)
Charles Maxham -- running
David McOwen -- running
Eric Migdail -- running
Bobby Mills (ME) -- running (FEC)
Omar Monahan (PA) -- running (FEC)
Frank Moore -- running
Michael Moriarty -- running
Phillip Morrow (TX) -- running (FEC)
Jasper Moyers (VA) -- running (FEC)
Joel Nickerson -- running
Sandra Noble (MO) -- running (FEC)
Jeffrey Petkevicius (LA) -- running (FEC)
Charles Phillips (CA) -- running (FEC)
Arthur Regan -- running
Burton Ridgeway -- running
Paul Rosenberger (CA) -- running (FEC)
Victor Scazzola -- running
Joe Schriner (OH) -- running (FEC)
Larry Schuetter (CA) -- running (FEC)
Jonathon Sharkey (NJ) -- running (FEC)
Michael Strauss (MA) -- running (FEC)
Ben Thompson -- running
Linda Tompkins (FL) -- running (FEC)
Bruce Trask (FL) -- running (FEC) -- Reform Party
Hugh Wallace (NC) -- running (FEC)
Lanakila Washington (NY) -- running (FEC) -- The Humanistic Party
Tom Wells (FL) -- running (FEC)
Lisa Weltman -- running
Carl Whitaker -- running
Ruth White (NV) -- running (FEC)
Rick Williams -- running
Robert Winn (AZ) -- running (FEC)
Aabbatta Witort (IL) -- running (FEC)

Gail Parker -- probable
Jesse Ventura -- possible
Michael Bloomberg -- possible

Arnold Jones (UT) -- disclaimed interest

Huckabee Forms Exploratory Committee

Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is the latest Republican presidential hopeful to join the quest for the party's 2008 presidential nomination, Congressional Quarterly reports. Huckabee, who was rated as one of the nation's top five governors by Time magazine in 2005, is noted for his socially conservative views, but will face tougher scrutiny from conservative voters on taxes and immigration issues.

Huckabee said his belief in a “culture of life” extends beyond the conservative agenda on social issues to encompass such matters as education, health care, environmental protection and affordable housing — views that Huckabee’s supporters see as potentially giving him broader appeal to the general electorate.

Those positions, however, may increase wariness about Huckabee among “small government” conservatives who already are skeptical about his economic stewardship as governor of Arkansas.

Groups such as the Cato Institute and the Club for Growth have sharply panned Huckabee for raising several taxes during his tenure. But Huckabee, during his NBC interview, rebutted those criticisms, saying he had also lowered other taxes and that any tax increases were dedicated to important public purposes such as improved roads and schools....

Huckabee is launching his presidential exploratory effort upon completion of a tour promoting his book “From Hope to Higher Ground: 12 Stops to Restoring America’s Greatness,” which focuses on his gubernatorial policies...

Still, the once portly Huckabee is far better known nationally for his 2005 book, “Quit Digging Your Grave With A Knife And Fork,” that focused on his successful efforts to shed about 100 pounds through diet and exercise — prompted by being diagnosed with adult-onset diabetes.

Friday Top Five, January 26th

Every Friday, The Next Prez ranks the top five contenders in the 2008 US presidential race. This week's rankings include the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian parties, along with independents and other third parties. With the leading contenders in both the Democratic and Republican races at the exploratory committee stage or later, rankings will include only active candidates from now on.

Democrats

1. Hillary Clinton (steady) -- Her campaign was launched with great fanfare, but overstated claims of "netroots support" could come back to haunt her.

2. John Edwards (rising) -- Leads in most Iowa polls and on the web, remains reasonably close to Obama nationally, and has been through a presidential campaign before.

3. Barack Obama (steady) -- Appealing to moderate Democrats and independents with thoughtful and nuanced interview responses, but risks losing anti-war supporters with talk of "phased redeployments" and maintaining pressure on Iran.

4. Joe Biden (rising) -- Could benefit from Kerry's departure from the race, and for speaking out forcefully against the troop surge.

5. Bill Richardson (steady) -- Lots of media attention for entering the race and for being one of the better-qualified candidates, but barely registers in the polls.


Republicans

1. Rudy Giuliani (steady) -- Despite differences with many Republican voters on a variety of issues, his numerous conservative challengers could split the core vote and keep Giuliani in the lead for a while.

2. John McCain (falling) -- Still trails Giuliani in most Republican preference polls, and is beginning to lose the head-to-head matchups with top Democrats.

3. Mitt Romney (steady) -- With Gingrich looking less and less like a candidate, Romney becomes the conservative contender most capable of competing financially with McCain and Giuliani.

4. Sam Brownback (steady) -- Coming out against the troop surge in Iraq could differentiate Brownback from the top three candidates, who have all backed President Bush on the plan.

5. Jim Gilmore (rising) -- Poll numbers are fairly low, but gubernatorial experience gives him the edge over Represenatives Hunter, Tancredo, and Paul.


Libertarians

1. Steve Kubby (rising) -- Digg.com pickup of his response to the State of the Union address crashed his site, but it's back up with a first call for online donations for travel, radio ads, and a better server.

2. George Phillies (steady) -- Showed he will actively campaign for the LP nomination, announcing appearances at ten different events in nine different states in the next few months.

3. Christine Smith (steady) -- Pulling ahead of Phillies in our January straw poll, and trailing Kubby by only a few votes.

4. Kent McManigal (steady) -- Running a decidedly low-key campaign, with statements like this: "I can't argue or debate you into changing your view. What I can do is live my life freely. Live by what I know is right. I will not initiate force or fraud against anyone. I will stick to my guns. I can't force you to be free. If you want to join me, I will welcome you."

5. Doug Stanhope (steady) -- No updates since September on his website, but national name recognition and financial resources could make him a strong challenger.


Independents

1. Daniel Imperato (steady) -- Reaching out to Christian conservatives by meeting with the pastor Chuck Smith of the Calvary Chapel, a large protestant church in California.

2. Joe Schriner (steady) -- Weighs in with his own position paper on the Iraq war, calling for a formal apology to the Iraqi people and a victim's fund.

3. Steve Adams (steady) -- Provided his own response to the State of the Union address on Conservative President, calling for a balanced budget and an end to earmarks right away, not five years down the road.

4. Bob Hargis (steady) -- Battling Adams for the top spot in the January independent poll here on The Next Prez.

5. Al Hamburg (steady) -- No discernible web presence for the Wyoming independent, but FEC filings show him having raised over ten thousand dollars already.

Edwards, Giuliani Lead Iowa Poll

With the Iowa caucuses less than a year away, both the Democratic and Republican races are still wide open, with no candidate earning over 25% of the vote in a recent (Jan. 19-21) Strategic Vision poll of 600 likely caucus-goers from each party. Some pundits have opined that public opinion polls "two years before the election" mean little, but the primaries aren't two years away, and many of these candidates have already made multiple visits to Iowa. Full results:

Democrats (%)

John Edwards -- 25
Barack Obama -- 17
Tom Vilsack -- 16
Hillary Clinton -- 15
Joe Biden -- 4
John Kerry -- 3
Wesley Clark -- 2
Bill Richardson -- 1
Chris Dodd -- 1
Dennis Kucinich -- 1
Undecided -- 15

Republicans (%)

Rudy Giuliani -- 25
John McCain -- 21
Newt Gingrich -- 13
Mitt Romney -- 8
Chuck Hagel -- 7
Tommy Thompson -- 2
Tom Tancredo -- 2
Sam Brownback -- 2
Mike Huckabee -- 1
George Pataki -- 1
Jim Gilmore -- 1
Duncan Hunter -- 1
Undecided -- 16

On the Democratic side, Kerry has recently dropped out, and Clark has yet to declare his intentions. Former Alaska senator Mike Gravel was left off the list of Democratic contenders.

Among Republicans, Gingrich has been non-committal, and his 13% would probably go to conservative challengers over front-runners Giuliani and McCain, if he decides not to run. Hagel, Huckabee, and Pataki have not yet entered the race, although Congressman Ron Paul (who has entered the race) was excluded. Attorney John Cox of Illinois has visited every county in Iowa, but was also left off the poll.

Third Party Thursday, January 25th

Every Thursday, The Next Prez examines the 2008 US presidential election from the perspective of third party and independent candidates, who are often ignored by the mainstream media. This week's edition focuses on news from the Libertarian Party.

Lance Brown Opts Out: The first Libertarian to enter the 2008 contest is also the first to leave. Lance Brown announced in 1994 that he would be entering the 2008 campaign, the first he would be Constitutionally qualified to participate in. In a blog post at The Free View, Brown explains his reasons for leaving the race, and announces that seeking the presidency is still in his future.

Due primarily to developments in my career path over the past few years, I have decided to withdraw from the 2008 race for the Libertarian Party presidential nomination and the presidency.

Put simply, I’m just not ready yet. I would not be able to be all the candidate I should be, if I were to stay in the race....

My long-term goal to seek the presidency, which always spanned beyond 2008 anyway, is still in place. It’s actually due to that long-term goal that I feel it’s inappropriate for me to run at this time. This has always been about making the best run I can for the position, not about sticking with a fairly arbitrary timeline. In the service of making the best run I can for the presidency, I’m choosing not to stick with the original timeline I set back in 1994.

Phillies to Hit the Road: Libertarian contender George Phillies of Massachusetts has posted a busy travel schedule to his website, including trips to several LP state conventions and other events:

February 10: Nevada State Convention.
February 20: Rhode Island Libertarian Activists.
February 23-25: New Hampshire Liberty Forum.

March 3: Maryland State Convention.
March 17-18: FL State Chairs Conference and Libertarian National Committee meeting.
March 18: Florida State Convention
March 31: Tennessee State Convention

April 13-15: New Mexico State Convention.
April 28: New York State Convention.

May 5: Pennsylvania State Convention.

Kubby Responds to State of the Union Address: Libertarian contender Steve Kubby gave an unofficial Libertarian response to the President's speech on his new website, kubby2008.com. His reply was picked up by the popular news site Digg.com, causing the site to crash from the sudden influx of traffic. Some highlights:

The union, President Bush tells us, is strong. And he may be right. What he does not admit is that the union is weaker now than when he took office.

As evidence for his claim of national strength, he cites an economy which thrives in spite of, not because of, the ministrations of his government ... and proposes additional "help" of the type that weakens rather than strengthens it....

Addressing himself to the question of national defense, he defends to the very last his failed experiments in foreign military adventurism which have stretched America's armed forces to the breaking point, alienated our friends, empowered our enemies, and left us less, not more, secure against attack or invasion.

Turning to issues of energy independence and environmental sanity, he recommends more subsidies and more regulation, rather than smaller government and more innovation....

The notion that government exists only for the purpose of securing our rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, bequeathed us by our nation's founders, is the foundation upon which every worthwhile American accomplishment rests. The Bush adminstration, the Congress, and their predecessors in the White House and on Capitol Hill, have gone at that foundation with a sledgehammer.

The cracks they've produced in that foundation are visible all around us. The Patriot Act. The Military Commissions Act. Warrantless searches and wiretaps. No-knock raids. Detention without charge, counsel or trial. As a nation, we now imprison more of our own than any other. One in thirty of us are trapped in a "justice" system that has long since ceased to represent justice. The rest of us are subject to reams of arbitrary and capricious edicts concerning what we may say, how we may worship, which political candidates we may support (and how much we do so financially), what arms we may carry in our own defense, what medicines we may use, even whether or not we can play cards on the Internet.

America as we know it -- everything in it worthy of our devotion and allegiance -- stands at the edge of cliff, below which the darkness of totalitarianism awaits. Whether or not our union is strong enough to step backward from the precipice is a question only time will answer.

McManigal Gives His Own State of the Union Address: Another Libertarian candidate, Kent McManigal, wrote his own version of the state of the union, from a libertarian perspective. An excerpt:

America, through world-wide meddling by the US government, has made enemies all over the globe. The US government does not, or at least should not, represent America. America is the Constitution and the Bill of Rights; The Highest Law of the Land. The US government is a bureaucracy which serves only its own interests to the detriment of America....

Much is made of the shift to a Democratic-controlled Congress, but this is merely "smoke and mirrors" as there is no longer enough difference between Democrat and Republican to matter. Both sides believe they have the authority and wisdom to control the personal, private affairs of others. Both sides pursue the same policies only shifting emphasis from year to year. Both sides are complicit in the destruction of liberty under the pretense of saving "us" from one phantom or another.

Kerry Out

2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry will not make another run at the presidency in 2008, according to the Associated Press.

“There are powerful reasons to want to continue that fight now. But I have concluded this isn't the time for me to mount a presidential campaign....”

Officials said Kerry would seek a new six-year term in the Senate in 2008. The fourth-term lawmaker and decorated Vietnam War veteran said he would devote his time and energy to ending the conflict in Iraq.

He said he wanted President Bush's successor to enter office with the United States having “a reasonable prospect of success” in Iraq.

“I don't want the next president to find that they have inherited a nation still divided and a policy destined to end as Vietnam did – in a bitter and sad legacy,” he said.

Senator Kerry, like Senators Clinton and Bayh, had a large cash reserve (over ten million dollars) from previous campaigns that could have been applied to the 2008 race, and a nationwide network of supporters. Recent national polls had Kerry receiving between four and eight percent of the vote among Democrats. My guess is that those supporters will now shift toward Senators Clinton, Biden, and Dodd, which would add to the challenge facing Senator Obama and former senator John Edwards as they try to gain ground on the former First Lady.

Candidates' Corner -- Iraq

Welcome to the first edition of "Candidates' Corner" here on The Next Prez, where I will pose a weekly question on an issue impacting the 2008 US presidential election, and invite all candidates from all parties to respond in the comments section. I hope to start a lively and thoughtful debate, and give all candidates a public forum to address some of the key questions in the race.

If you are a candidate and you decide to respond, please identify yourself and your political party (if any) in the first line of your response. I encourage you to keep your answers brief, but not too brief, somewhere between a soundbite and a position paper. If you have prepared a more elaborate analysis for a given issue, links to additional information on your website are encouraged.

This week's question:

President Bush is planning to send an additional 20,000+ troops to Iraq, in hopes of stabilizing the situation there. Other political voices have called for anything from an immediate withdrawal, to a phased redeployment dependent on meeting military and political goals. If you were president, what course of action would you take regarding Iraq? When and under what conditions should US forces leave Iraq, and how many should be stationed there going forward, if any?

Clinton, Giuliani Lead National Polls

Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani have made a clean sweep of four national Democratic and Republican presidential preference polls this month, according to PollingReport.com. Recent polls have included Zogby (January 5th-9th), Gallup (January 12th-14th), ABC News/Washington Post (January 16th-19th), and CNN (January 19th-21st). Candidate lists varied slightly between the polls, as indicated below. Results total less than 100%, since I have excluded responses such as undecided, not sure, none, wouldn't vote, etc.

Z = Zogby, G = Gallup, A = ABC News, C = CNN
N = not included, L = less than one percent, V = volunteered

Democrats	Z	G	A	C
Hillary Clinton	29	29	41	34
Barack Obama	14	18	17	18
John Edwards	13	13	11	15
Al Gore	13	11	10	10
John Kerry	4	8	8	5
Joe Biden	7	5	3	3
Bill Richardson	1	3	1	2
Wesley Clark	1	2	1	2
Dennis Kucinich	1	L	1	2
Chris Dodd	L	1	L	1
Al Sharpton	N	1	N	1
Tom Vilsack	L	L	L	1
Mike Gravel	N	N	L	N
Joe Lieberman	2	N	N	N
Ed Rendell	L	N	N	N
Bill Moyers	L	N	N	N

Republicans	Z	G	A	C
Rudy Giuliani	21	31	34	32
John McCain	17	27	27	26
Newt Gingrich	8	10	9	9
Mitt Romney	6	7	9	7
George Pataki	1	3	2	3
Jim Gilmore	N	2	1	3
Tommy Thompson	2	2	1	1
Sam Brownback	1	1	1	2
Mike Huckabee	1	1	1	1
Chuck Hagel	1	1	L	1
Ron Paul	N	N	1	1
Tom Tancredo	N	N	1	1
Duncan Hunter	L	L	L	1
Condoleezza Rice	7	1V	N	N
Jeb Bush	7	N	N	N
Fred Thompson	1	N	N	N

Giuliani led McCain by 4 to 7 percentage points, a small but consistent lead from one poll to another. Zogby's inclusion of Rice and Bush appeared to hurt the front-runners the most.

Hillary Clinton's lead varied from 11 to 24 percentage points, which appears substantial at this point. The inclusion of Al Gore in all four polls may be impacting the totals for Obama and Edwards more significantly, however.